Gilbert Bécaud´s famous song applies well to the situation in
Egypt. We know what has happened, more or less, but nobody has any idea of
the future, and there is nothing as risky as demolishing an imperfect
house without knowing where you plan to live afterwards.
One of the reasons I stopped my weekly Chile “civilian” papers at
the end of last year, was the fact that they were ignored by most people
who matter, or worse, plagiarised my opinions and analysis to present
them later as their own. The latest case was the paper by academics
who “discovered” that unemployment statistics were being “massaged”, a
matter I wrote about regularly for months, totally ignored by both the
Chilean and international media. However, when two researchers from the
Catholic University said the same thing six months later, their paper was
hailed and publicised urbi & orbi.
This paper is an occasional one (certainly not monthly) I shall
produce for my Defence list, to which are added, very conditionally,
some survivors from my civilian lists, but who will be subject to
close scrutiny and treated ruthlessly if they misbehave.
On Egypt, nobody was interested in the views of the only
Arabic-speaking analyst in Chile, furthermore born in the Middle East, so a number
of “expertos” have been filing in front of the TV cameras and filling
the pages of the newspapers with increasing amounts of imbecile
comments about a country and region they know nothing about. This paper aims at
putting some facts straight.
WHAT HAPPENED LAST FRIDAY Some time ago, in other notes, I
mentioned the day when I criticised at a Santiago conference the sale of the
Peruvian state steel company to the Chinese government, pointing out that
calling it “a privatisation” was stressing the definition. In Egypt, the
outgoing president handed power to the Supreme Council for the Armed
Forces, headed by a Defence minister appointed by him. They call it a Revolution,
even a “historical” day. The military have promised free and fair
elections (hey, just like most military governments resulting from a coup. The
problem is that they get a taste for power and as time passes, find it
difficult to leave it).
Since the fall of King Faruk in 1952 in a pretty bloodless
revolution, Egypt has been ruled by military people. They may not have been
partisans of Swiss-style democracy, but to describe Mubarak (who has the
same surname as Shakira, did you know that?) as a cross between Stalin
and Dracula is an exaggeration. It was one of his predecessors, Gamal
Abd el Nasser, who gave not just Egyptians but the whole Arab world, a
sense of pride and identity, even though his attempts at unifying failed.
Mubarak took over from Anwar Sadat (who inherited the job from Nasser), as
a result of an assassination, so transfer of power has been
generally unexpected in the country. So much for the current “historical”
events.
The fact that this time there was a big popular uprising (mind
you, even if 3 million demonstrated against Mubarak, that only makes less
than 4 % of the population), was not a novelty either. Following the 1967
defeat against Israel, Nasser offered to step down, but a popular protest
in his favour (admittedly it contained some rent-a-crowd elements), made
him change his mind.
The importance of Egypt is because of its size and shining light,
as well as its prestige (due in no small terms to Nasser’s tenure and his
clever diplomacy in taking over the Suez Canal in 1956 and arranging for
a concerted Israeli-French-British invasion attempt to end
shamefully). Egypt is the most populated Arab country, a traditional centre for
culture and ideas, prestigious universities, a quality Foreign Service.
Though rural illiteracy is still high, it has a sophisticated and well
educated urban elite. The problem is that if you turn out all these
millions of trained graduates and have no jobs for them, you build up
resentment and frustration, educated resentment and frustration, on top of the
tiredness of seeing the same faces for 30 years (mind you, Queen Victoria
was on the throne for 64 years, and many Brits were tired of her too,
particularly as her own depression following her husband’s death permeated through many aspects of life in a dreary way).
WHAT DID THE PROTESTERS WANT? OK, so the Mubarak regime muzzled
the opposition, restricted freedom of speech, did nasty things to
opponents who became serious, stole money, flirted with the wrong people,
and was made to sign a “peace” agreement with Israel which resulted in
removing the main military threat to them whilst they went on driving tanks
over Palestinian babies.
All the above is not an end but a means towards a different life.
What people want is better living conditions (otherwise try eating
your Facebook account and make a twit through your backside for
dessert..). “La politique, c’est le bifteck” said De Gaulle, and as often as not,
he was dead on right.
Will the removal of Mubarak make Egyptians materially better,
beyond the odd additional school or hospital? The answer is NO. Egypt is a
poor country with limited resources, which cannot provide higher wages,
more employment and less corruption. The latter is pervasive in such a
society and after over 40 years as an international analyst, I cannot
remember a single country where a political upheaval reduced or
eliminated corruption. Most former Communist countries are far more corrupt
now than in the USSR days. As for wages and jobs, with 60 % of the Arab
population aged under 20, and today’s activities being less labour intensive,
there just is no possibility to absorb this workforce.You can create
McDonalds, IT companies, tour operators, and make only a small dent in the
figures. The post-natal depression of the “historic” revolution is likely
to be hard, without even mentioning the time it will take to make up the
losses from the changeover and economic instability, the fall in
foreign investment, etc..So even getting back to December 2010 levels
(which
caused the uprising) might take one, two or even three years. Will
the population be that patient?
India is supposedly democratic. Doesn’t it have poverty and
corruption? Let us not go that far. Spain is democratic and not only does it
have 20% unemployment, but its corruption scandals make even Latin
American politicians blush. You cannot do such things by decree. The laws
of gravity are against you.
WHO WILL RUN EGYPT? Well, for the moment the country is being
run by military men appointed by the outgoing Mubarak. Elections were
initially due next September. It remains to be seen whether such a deadline
can be met when you need not just a new constitution, but the emergence
of structured politcal parties, which just do not exist.
Apart from the military, the only structured set-up in the country
is the Muslim Brotherhood, with over 80 years of existence and still very
much around, despite constant hounding. Both they and the military have
been making soft noises in order not to frighten anyone, but do not
take it for granted. The sceptics say the Brotherhood has no charismatic
leader (no Khomeini) but others say that it is not an essential ingredient
for grabbing power, particularly in a vacuum.
Egypt has had a checkered history of being mainly run by
foreigners in modern times and until 1952. The Ottoman Empire dominated until
WWI following which the British took over. In 1919, there was a revolt
against British rule encompassing a wide range of elements within the
population, in fact very similar to the “unique historical event” of last
week. Some 800 people died. The leading nationalist party was the Wafd,
initially very powerful, but once it had more or less achieved its aim it
lost touch with ist base and disappeared into oblivion. It is probably the
only previous example of a popular-based party in modern Egyptian
politics. Obama and the world press, please read history before you make
asinine declarations about world events. Britain granted formal
independence in 1922 but the country was de facto a British protectorate. I shall
leave a copy of this paper under the door at the Hyatt hotel for your
arrival on March 21. The period of the kings (Fuad and Faruk) was not
exactly nationalist, as not only was the British consul-general
constantly breathing down their necks, but they themselves were of Albanian
origin. Man, even the first Ottoman prime Minister of Egypt, the man who
was
behind the Suez Canal project, was Armenian Nubar Nubarian, better
known as Nubar Pasha, born in Smyrna.
There are other groups lurking in the background. Among them are
two Islamic groups. The fundamentalist Salafists, and the Jihadists, a
more generic term but certainly on the more militant end of Islam.
From Palestine, Hamas also has its eye on Egyptian politics. I would
not put too much faith on Al Baradei, who at best can be a sort of
short-term Egyptian Kerensky.
There are people, and not just foreign investors, who have much to
loose. Not just the coterie of the Mubarak antourage, but even the
military under him control large chunks of the economy. They may resent having to
give it up. The US has made such a big song and dance about the U$ 1 bn +
they give each year as military aid. At the height if the protests,
there were hints of suspending it. What’s U$ 1 bn today? 40 % goes on “administration” and much of the rest on buying US goods. Little
of it stays in Egypt. The amount is equal to just a third of the defence
budget of tiny Azerbaijan..Last time the Americans thus tried to “punish”
Egypt by withholding finance for the Aswan dam, the only result was to
throw them into the open arms of the USSR.
IS THE DOMINO THEORY JUSTIFIED? The Arab world is much more
diverse than Latin America, in every aspect of life, culture and politics.
Each country has to be looked at separately, but one thing most have in
common is that they have a political culture based on tribal, religious
or personal allegiances, rather than Western-style political parties.
Forget that as an analyst and you have lost your way.
A mixture of some political overture and better economics may
help, but not everyone can afford both or either. Egypt, as was said
earlier, is a poor country. Many people are government employees, and earn a
pittance. On the other hand, Kuwait, in a move which is fundamental but
received hardly any coverage, announced last month that it was giving each
of its citizens a U$ 3,500 cash bonus and food rations for 14 months. It
has plenty of money, like many of the low-population high-oil income
countries of the Gulf. Algeria’s finances are prosperous, less so Morocco’s.
Syria may be able to soften its politics, but it will be harder for
Saudi Arabia. What they have all understood is that you cannot trust the
USA as an ally. They should have consulted the Georgians, those Caucasian
peasant Atamans who thought they could attack the Russian Federation and
be backed by the USA and the EU. All they got was a shipful of
relief supplies after they had lost the war.
What about Iran? Previous protests have been successfully stifled,
and if you followed such things more closely and objectively, you would
know that it is the Middle Eastern country with the hardest fought elections
(much more passionate than the Chilean ones, to name but one). Will
Egypt turn Islamic, and will it be as “light” “a la turca” or “hard” “a la
persa”. Many commentators have claimed that in the case of Iran, a secular
popular uprising had been hijacked by the Mullahs. Mazkharaf, as they say
in Farsi. The Iranian revolution was a religious-inspired one from
the beginning, and it was never on the cards, once the Shah’s regime
and his own version of Kerensky, Shapur Bakhtiar, was out of the
way.
So to tell the truth, we do not know who will fall as a result of
popular protests elsewhere, if anywhere. The respected British magazine
the New Statesman has suggested that one should not limit the speculation
to developing countries with no Western-style democracy. The
populations of Western Europe, as they will be increasingly affected by the
overthrow of 150 years of social progress because their governments bought U$
220 million Rafale combat aircraft instead of the U$ 20,000 second
hand (and perfectly serviceable) MIG-19s that the Czech Republic was selling
in the early 90’s, have now run out of money.
OTHER CONSEQUENCES The biggest looser in all this, and under
any scenario, is Israel, and it was worth all the sacrifice just for
that. Unfortunately, instead of filing in an application to rejoin the
human race, they will become even more aggressive, inflexible and
arrogant.
Should there be unrest or a radical government, there is also the
risk of a closure of the Suez Canal. This would be cutting a nose to spite
a face, as the yearly revenues from its operations are U$ 5 bn, far more
than the U$ 1 bn the USA give the Egyptian military. Increasingly bigger
vessels and an extensive pipeline network to the Caspian, Black Sea and
the Mediterranean, have made the canal less important but any
lengthy interruption in its operations will hurt the trade of many people,
as well as add to existing inflationary pressures.
COULD IT HAPPEN IN CHILE? The answer must be know, because with
some local exceptions (such as the recent case in Punta Arenas), the
natives here have no passion. They are lobotomized by cosy
materialism, mind-numbing TV programmes and a studious censorship in the press
or educational systems of any advice on how to get wrongs put right.
It is the only country where if you complain loudly about bad service
anywhere, the other users equally affected will not back you up, and in fact
try to shut you up.
On January 19, I got angry at the fact that the Super Caja banking
centre of Banco Santander near Escuela Militar was unable to giveme 20
1,000 peso bills. This is not just the largest bank in Chile, but the Super
Cajas are service centres open longer hours with a limited range of services
mainly consisting of cashing cheques, paying bills and depositing money.
How could they not have U$ 40 in 1,000 peso bills at 12.30 PM? One guy
behind me said that “why don’t you go back to your country and get your
bills there!”. I will not tell you what I answered him just in case
your innocent daughters read these papers. He is still in therapy.
Those jerks are going to overthrow the Opus Dei Mullahs and the
money-grabbing oligarchies? Give me a break.
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